Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10697

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.125). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10696, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10697
    26 Oct 2026, 09:12 UTC

    PLS1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPLS1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6e458b87d5b92541

    discovery+0.55 p=0.125 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.963 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.125)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    287e7751c4d4049056ba3a13…
    follows 0106e4f21b81…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10697: PLS1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.39 (p 0.109, n 18), 95% CI -0.09 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PLS1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.