Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10670

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.83 p 0.0056; held-out -0.02 p 0.965). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10669, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10670
    26 Oct 2026, 08:37 UTC

    DAO

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDAO in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2c47b6e7a5ea698e

    discovery-0.83 p=0.0056 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.965 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.83 p 0.0056; held-out -0.02 p 0.965)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    ae9f02e6a5a12d7f3f19f36d…
    follows e5e207d3177d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10670: DAO in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DAO in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.