Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10622

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.217). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10621, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10622
    26 Oct 2026, 07:31 UTC

    HOXA3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHOXA3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5fe67d6e4ab40668

    discovery+0.46 p=0.217 n=9

    replication-0.28 p=0.466 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.217)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cc60c4bebc21f427a297a214…
    follows da61d92a3cf2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10622: HOXA3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.323, n 18), 95% CI -0.25 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.14 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HOXA3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.