Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0106

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.17, p 0.581). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 105, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0106
    16 Oct 2026, 16:40 UTC

    NDUFAB1

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionNDUFAB1 in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registered30483e01fd2734ba

    discovery-0.17 p=0.581 n=33

    replication-0.35 p=0.192 n=22

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.17, p 0.581)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d7c90c137cd46b26d1fc0ebe…
    follows 233f93e73028…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0106: NDUFAB1 in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.171, n 55), 95% CI -0.50 to -0.00. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.25 (p 0.207, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: -0.24 (p 0.230, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.39 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.160, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for NDUFAB1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.