Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10593

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.285). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10592, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10593
    26 Oct 2026, 06:52 UTC

    SYT7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSYT7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede906370986c922e1

    discovery-0.40 p=0.285 n=9

    replication-0.13 p=0.739 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.285)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    471b337e7b4c91ec112664a4…
    follows ae54a1c6083b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10593: SYT7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SYT7 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.