Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10581

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.068). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10580, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10581
    26 Oct 2026, 06:36 UTC

    CHDH

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCHDH in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7c1e218c092a5822

    discovery-0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    replication-0.76 p=0.017 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.068)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    38b232e5ae6ed5be1b6fae30…
    follows 72be0385f480…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10581: CHDH in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.70 (p 0.0012, n 18), 95% CI -0.88 to -0.35. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.71 (p 9.1e-4, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.81 (p 5.4e-5, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.77 to -0.66, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.70 (p 0.0012, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CHDH in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.