Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10572

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.671). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10571, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10572
    26 Oct 2026, 06:25 UTC

    GLDN

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionGLDN in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddb9151e50b059d58

    discovery+0.17 p=0.671 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.671)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5101ca278522f7e52707f0b2…
    follows 3f3f99150d03…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10572: GLDN in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.814, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.08, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GLDN in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.