Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10555

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.705). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10554, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10555
    26 Oct 2026, 06:03 UTC

    RBP4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRBP4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered153c717bec6c7e6c

    discovery+0.15 p=0.705 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.705)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    69dc25e38836e7e0e6c2efa2…
    follows 6631977572e3…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10555: RBP4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.735, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.21, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RBP4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.