Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10532

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.838). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10531, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10532
    26 Oct 2026, 05:32 UTC

    HBS1L

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionHBS1L in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda6ff645dff7c6272

    discovery-0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    replication+0.58 p=0.101 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.838)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    04eaa54a650bb9692f434e47…
    follows 9458286fe674…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10532: HBS1L in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.27 (p 0.285, n 18), 95% CI -0.23 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HBS1L in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.