Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10508

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.947). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10507, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10508
    26 Oct 2026, 04:59 UTC

    NAV3

    microglia, braak

    predictionNAV3 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered62b5db66f67daefe

    discovery+0.03 p=0.947 n=9

    replication+0.50 p=0.172 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.947)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2cc10db9a29d11932f95f542…
    follows ef1d4ef75d94…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10508: NAV3 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.33 (p 0.176, n 18), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.50 (p 0.036, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.25 to +0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NAV3 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.