Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10506

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.732). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10505, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10506
    26 Oct 2026, 04:57 UTC

    CBLN4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCBLN4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredffa9827b37f57ccc

    discovery+0.13 p=0.732 n=9

    replication+0.85 p=0.0036 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.732)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5bd960b72f6c07f94e50ce81…
    follows 0a4903fe2746…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10506: CBLN4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.48 (p 0.046, n 18), 95% CI +0.01 to +0.77. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.41 (p 0.087, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.41 to +0.63, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CBLN4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.