Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10494

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.092). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10493, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10494
    26 Oct 2026, 04:40 UTC

    CASP4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCASP4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered54f1d5899fd5cfd7

    discovery-0.59 p=0.092 n=9

    replication+0.54 p=0.133 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.092)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4727281dee125636f5eaf866…
    follows 3979c71ea00d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10494: CASP4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to +0.01, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CASP4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.