Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10395

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.344). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10394, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10395
    26 Oct 2026, 02:32 UTC

    CTNNA3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionCTNNA3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6cf575406c321eac

    discovery+0.36 p=0.344 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.927 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.344)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fd5ddb69913cd9b323cb6221…
    follows 811e8e6d320b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10395: CTNNA3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.37 (p 0.130, n 18), 95% CI -0.12 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.29 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CTNNA3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.