Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10314

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.964). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10313, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10314
    26 Oct 2026, 01:32 UTC

    EFEMP1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionEFEMP1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4dd9308128e81b0f

    discovery-0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.699 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.964)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e6c43631d81fc6d3ba8bfca7…
    follows 08594e3dc819…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10314: EFEMP1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.01 to +0.21, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EFEMP1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.