Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10310

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.74 p 0.024; held-out +0.49 p 0.181). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10309, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10310
    26 Oct 2026, 01:24 UTC

    VAPA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionVAPA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered96cabb068a20cba5

    discovery+0.74 p=0.024 n=9

    replication+0.49 p=0.181 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.74 p 0.024; held-out +0.49 p 0.181)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    2f100ff3c7a5b4da3d13c991…
    follows e91dbc1c7f44…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10310: VAPA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.50 (p 0.034, n 18), 95% CI +0.04 to +0.78. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.50 (p 0.034, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.43 to +0.63, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.50 (p 0.034, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VAPA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.