Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1026

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.775). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1025, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1026
    17 Oct 2026, 12:31 UTC

    FGF20

    microglia, braak

    predictionFGF20 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered24b8e1e52aacc1c0

    discovery+0.11 p=0.775 n=9

    replication+0.40 p=0.292 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.775)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b77a007aedd8cc169c18f12c…
    follows 18f77816a5eb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1026: FGF20 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.289, n 18), 95% CI -0.23 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.21 to +0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FGF20 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.