Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10253

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.428). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10252, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10253
    26 Oct 2026, 00:10 UTC

    ACSBG1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionACSBG1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7b84529704c00e9e

    discovery-0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    replication-0.76 p=0.017 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.428)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    890a7bc5194a4a9343917211…
    follows ad639b081b6c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10253: ACSBG1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.52 (p 0.026, n 18), 95% CI -0.80 to -0.07. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.64 (p 0.0039, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.66 to -0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.52 (p 0.026, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ACSBG1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.