Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10245

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.456). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10244, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10245
    26 Oct 2026, 00:01 UTC

    SLC6A11

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSLC6A11 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd98b7b411776d6cf

    discovery+0.29 p=0.456 n=9

    replication-0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.456)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ecab908bdedfdaa0b3e1a97a…
    follows 7b9c6e5df770…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10245: SLC6A11 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.18, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC6A11 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.