Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10224

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.466). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10223, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10224
    25 Oct 2026, 23:34 UTC

    ANKRD11

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionANKRD11 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0898317a622e3f2a

    discovery-0.28 p=0.466 n=9

    replication-0.44 p=0.237 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.466)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    00c36ff013824cb1f38f09c7…
    follows d61da2460963…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10224: ANKRD11 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.207, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.21, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ANKRD11 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.