Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10184

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.66, p 0.053). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10183, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10184
    25 Oct 2026, 22:41 UTC

    GAST

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGAST in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered881f9c1193db973f

    discovery-0.66 p=0.053 n=9

    replication+0.39 p=0.300 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.66, p 0.053)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a75c2fef4a46b2535470e31e…
    follows 0582c0c57a1e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10184: GAST in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.658, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.24 to -0.00, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GAST in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.