Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10180

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.190). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10179, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10180
    25 Oct 2026, 22:36 UTC

    FFAR4

    microglia, braak

    predictionFFAR4 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7519fb578a3e0b83

    discovery-0.48 p=0.190 n=9

    replication-0.62 p=0.073 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.190)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a3999b14ee7577a0dc95057a…
    follows bee6bc7b8b4e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10180: FFAR4 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.01. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.46 (p 0.054, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FFAR4 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.