Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10178

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.311). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10177, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10178
    25 Oct 2026, 22:33 UTC

    ALAS1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionALAS1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3a88ae8135d2c604

    discovery-0.38 p=0.311 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.630 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.311)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    229ab83cc5272bc79e60f641…
    follows bc72ef50d425…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10178: ALAS1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.24 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ALAS1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.