Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10174

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.894). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10173, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10174
    25 Oct 2026, 22:28 UTC

    TNFRSF10A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTNFRSF10A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3435dc61a1e74b36

    discovery-0.05 p=0.894 n=9

    replication-0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.894)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ef9b99c053f8d4b029e4c3cf…
    follows 73cdda8210e4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10174: TNFRSF10A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TNFRSF10A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.