Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1012

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1011, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1012
    17 Oct 2026, 12:06 UTC

    TRRAP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTRRAP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered75db7a3eb69684b4

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication-0.13 p=0.735 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7e579458c0766f55f711eea2…
    follows 9699b360c000…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1012: TRRAP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.861, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.06, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TRRAP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.