Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10094

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.502). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10093, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10094
    25 Oct 2026, 20:35 UTC

    RILPL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRILPL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered121b03fa5f846469

    discovery-0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    replication-0.74 p=0.022 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.502)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e515fe870570cdd0f3f643fd…
    follows 5390f027b217…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10094: RILPL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.02. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.58 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RILPL1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.