Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10058

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.315). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10057, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10058
    25 Oct 2026, 19:48 UTC

    OPCML

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionOPCML in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4a679c0dd43a20eb

    discovery-0.38 p=0.315 n=9

    replication+0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.315)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    85b4b2712b0d90230402bb66…
    follows 0800b98913f1…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10058: OPCML in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.18 to +0.04, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OPCML in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.