Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10009

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.56, p 0.114). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10008, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10009
    25 Oct 2026, 18:48 UTC

    SLCO2B1

    microglia, braak

    predictionSLCO2B1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3bd70f256a55df91

    discovery-0.56 p=0.114 n=9

    replication+0.54 p=0.130 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.56, p 0.114)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    16d967cb2556ea549dbf8fe7…
    follows d359a7dbb884…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10009: SLCO2B1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLCO2B1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.