Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

TNF

tumor necrosis factor

translation score 0.47, read 2026-10-18; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.13 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enriched in microglia (8 nCPM)1.00
chemistry
Open Targets
compounds already reach it: etanercept, placulumab, infliximab +110.90
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
43 Parkinson's trials, 4 stopped0.93
literature
PubMed
1,690 Parkinson's papers of 262,509: well-trodden0.02
pathways
Reactome
11 pathways; mostly immune signalling0.90

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 2267

Sealed predictions

  1. TNF in dopamine neurons, braak-0.46 (p 0.212) → +0.10 (p 0.790)receipt 2274
  2. TNF in microglia, braak-0.46 (p 0.217) → -0.34 (p 0.375)receipt 2273

Swarm cases

receipt 2274: TNF in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.13, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TNF in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 2273: TNF in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.125, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.11. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.125, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TNF in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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