Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

TAL1

TAL bHLH transcription factor 1, erythroid differentiation factor

translation score 0.41, read 2026-10-18; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.22 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enhanced, including microglia; strongest in platelets0.75
chemistry
Open Targets
hard to drug0.00
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
4 Parkinson's papers of 9950.79
pathways
Reactome
3 pathways; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 1912

Sealed predictions

  1. TAL1 in microglia, braak+0.04 (p 0.924) → +0.34 (p 0.373)receipt 1919
  2. TAL1 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.45 (p 0.222) → -0.07 (p 0.849)receipt 1920

Swarm cases

receipt 1920: TAL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.62 (p 0.0057, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TAL1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 1919: TAL1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.24, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TAL1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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