Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

STAT4

signal transducer and activator of transcription 4

translation score 0.44, read 2026-10-23; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.03 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
hard to drug0.24
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
1 Parkinson's trial, 0 stopped1.00
literature
PubMed
10 Parkinson's papers of 2,0080.69
pathways
Reactome
7 pathways; mostly immune signalling0.90

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 7017

Sealed predictions

  1. STAT4 in dopamine neurons, braak+0.50 (p 0.172) → +0.74 (p 0.024)receipt 7023

Swarm cases

receipt 7023: STAT4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.61 (p 0.0077, n 18), 95% CI +0.19 to +0.84. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.64 (p 0.0044, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.66 (p 0.0026, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.56 to +0.81, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.61 (p 0.0077, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for STAT4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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