Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

SMPD3

sphingomyelin phosphodiesterase 3

translation score 0.52, read 2026-10-22; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.03 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket0.60
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
5 Parkinson's papers of 1830.76
pathways
Reactome
2 pathways; mostly lysosome and autophagy1.00

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 6448

Sealed predictions

  1. SMPD3 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.40 (p 0.292) → -0.41 (p 0.273)receipt 6455

Swarm cases

receipt 6455: SMPD3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.49 (p 0.040, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.03. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.60 (p 0.0086, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.60 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SMPD3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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