Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

SMAD2

SMAD family member 2

translation score 0.47, read 2026-10-26; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.01 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket0.60
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
13 Parkinson's papers of 10,6880.65
pathways
Reactome
17 pathways; mostly iron and oxidative stress0.80

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 10251

Sealed predictions

  1. SMAD2 in dopamine neurons, braak+0.02 (p 0.962) → +0.50 (p 0.168)receipt 10260

Swarm cases

receipt 10260: SMAD2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SMAD2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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