Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

PPM1D

protein phosphatase, Mg2+/Mn2+ dependent 1D

translation score 0.47, read 2026-10-18; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.22 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket0.60
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
no papers tie it to Parkinson's yet1.00
pathways
Reactome
1 pathway; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 1883

Sealed predictions

  1. PPM1D in dopamine neurons, braak-0.29 (p 0.443) → -0.02 (p 0.965)receipt 1890

Swarm cases

receipt 1890: PPM1D in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.67 (p 0.0024, n 18) vs -0.19 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPM1D in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up PPM1D · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.00 p 1.000 (needs p < 8.3e-4)

Receipts

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