Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

NOCT

nocturnin

translation score 0.45, read 2026-10-22; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.03 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket0.60
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
1 Parkinson's papers of 1080.91
pathways
Reactome
1 pathway; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 6503

Sealed predictions

  1. NOCT in dopamine neurons, braak-0.48 (p 0.195) → +0.59 (p 0.096)receipt 6510

Swarm cases

receipt 6510: NOCT in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.881, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.08, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NOCT in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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