Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

MVP

major vault protein

translation score 0.41, read 2026-10-17; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.34 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket0.60
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
1 Parkinson's trial, 0 stopped1.00
literature
PubMed
10 Parkinson's papers of 3,1730.69
pathways
Reactome
1 pathway; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 0928

Sealed predictions

  1. MVP in dopamine neurons, braak+0.11 (p 0.775) → -0.71 (p 0.032)receipt 0935

Swarm cases

receipt 0935: MVP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.71 (p 0.0010, n 18) vs -0.21 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MVP in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MVP · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.22 p 0.424 (needs p < 0.0014)

Receipts

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