Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

MTNR1B

melatonin receptor 1B

translation score 0.47, read 2026-10-18; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.22 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enhanced, including brain inhibitory neurons; strongest in syncytiotrophoblasts0.75
chemistry
Open Targets
compounds already reach it: piromelatine, agomelatine, ramelteon +21.00
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
4 Parkinson's trials, 3 stopped0.40
literature
PubMed
3 Parkinson's papers of 4510.82
pathways
Reactome
2 pathways; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 1918

Sealed predictions

  1. MTNR1B in dopamine neurons, braak-0.65 (p 0.058) → -0.06 (p 0.873)receipt 1926

Swarm cases

receipt 1926: MTNR1B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.179, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MTNR1B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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