Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

HBA1

hemoglobin subunit alpha 1

translation score 0.36, read 2026-10-24; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.01 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
hard to drug: voxelotor, efaproxiral0.00
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
3 Parkinson's trials, 0 stopped1.00
literature
PubMed
3 Parkinson's papers of 2,2640.82
pathways
Reactome
6 pathways; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 8963

Sealed predictions

  1. HBA1 in dopamine neurons, braak+0.26 (p 0.493) → -0.15 (p 0.702)receipt 8971

Swarm cases

receipt 8971: HBA1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.908, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.15, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HBA1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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