Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

FGF21

fibroblast growth factor 21

translation score 0.33, read 2026-10-18; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.11 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
group enriched outside the brain (hepatocytes)0.10
chemistry
Open Targets
reachable by antibody0.45
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
1 Parkinson's trial, 0 stopped1.00
literature
PubMed
17 Parkinson's papers of 4,2200.62
pathways
Reactome
2 pathways; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 2472

Sealed predictions

  1. FGF21 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.51 (p 0.163) → -0.13 (p 0.739)receipt 2479

Swarm cases

receipt 2479: FGF21 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.188, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.36 (p 0.145, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FGF21 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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