Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

FGF2

fibroblast growth factor 2

translation score 0.49, read 2026-10-18; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.11 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enhanced, including astrocytes; strongest in choroid plexus epithelial cells0.75
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket: muparfostat0.60
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
1 Parkinson's trial, 0 stopped1.00
literature
PubMed
75 Parkinson's papers of 9,4960.43
pathways
Reactome
48 pathways; mostly immune signalling0.90

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 2512

Sealed predictions

  1. FGF2 in astrocytes, braak-0.18 (p 0.646) → -0.44 (p 0.234)receipt 2519
  2. FGF2 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.11 (p 0.770) → -0.58 (p 0.102)receipt 2520

Swarm cases

receipt 2520: FGF2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FGF2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 2519: FGF2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.188, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.39 to -0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FGF2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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