Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

BAD

BCL2 associated agonist of cell death

translation score 0.42, read 2026-10-25; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.01 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket0.60
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
92 Parkinson's trials, 4 stopped0.94
literature
PubMed
203 Parkinson's papers of 46,5280.30
pathways
Reactome
5 pathways; mostly mitochondrial quality control1.00

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 9743

Sealed predictions

  1. BAD in dopamine neurons, braak+0.00 (p 1.000) → +0.04 (p 0.909)receipt 9749

Swarm cases

receipt 9749: BAD in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.12, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BAD in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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