Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

AVPR1A

arginine vasopressin receptor 1A

translation score 0.39, read 2026-10-20; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.06 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enhanced outside the brain (vascular smooth muscle cells)0.10
chemistry
Open Targets
compounds already reach it: pecavaptan, argipressin tannate, balovaptan +101.00
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
1 Parkinson's trial, 1 stopped0.20
literature
PubMed
no papers tie it to Parkinson's yet1.00
pathways
Reactome
3 pathways; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 4708

Sealed predictions

  1. AVPR1A in dopamine neurons, braak+0.12 (p 0.756) → +0.40 (p 0.285)receipt 4712

Swarm cases

receipt 4712: AVPR1A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.36 (p 0.140, n 18), 95% CI -0.13 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.27 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AVPR1A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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