Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

ARAF

A-Raf proto-oncogene, serine/threonine kinase

translation score 0.53, read 2026-10-20; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.07 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
compounds already reach it: ly-3009120, belvarafenib, tovorafenib0.90
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
1 Parkinson's papers of 1,3420.91
pathways
Reactome
11 pathways; mostly growth signalling0.60

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 3864

Sealed predictions

  1. ARAF in dopamine neurons, braak-0.41 (p 0.276) → -0.20 (p 0.613)receipt 3871

Swarm cases

receipt 3871: ARAF in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.24 (p 0.346, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.26. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.13, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARAF in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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