Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

APLN

apelin

translation score 0.48, read 2026-10-22; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.03 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enhanced, including astrocytes; strongest in adrenal medulla cells0.75
chemistry
Open Targets
reachable by antibody0.45
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
2 Parkinson's papers of 2480.85
pathways
Reactome
2 pathways; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 6461

Sealed predictions

  1. APLN in dopamine neurons, braak-0.14 (p 0.716) → -0.29 (p 0.457)receipt 6469
  2. APLN in astrocytes, braak-0.17 (p 0.665) → -0.23 (p 0.555)receipt 6468

Swarm cases

receipt 6469: APLN in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.294, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.23. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.17, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APLN in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 6468: APLN in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.02, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APLN in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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